The Bitcoin halving is here, but what is this event and will it be different from previous ones? Glenn and Stu explain what a Bitcoin halving is, what usually happens, and why some believe there won’t be a spike in Bitcoin value this time around. But are they right? Or is it still a good time to buy?
TranscriptBelow is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: Hey, today is Bitcoin. What they call the havoc. Right?
STU: Happy havoc day, to those who celebrate. Yes. Ten hours away from now, it looks like.
GLENN: It sounds like something that would maybe happen, in -- what was that?
That film happened in Norway. It was like that summer festival.
It's like the halving, and they're all gathered in some beautiful place.
STU: Yes. What was that movie?
What was that? It was very -- it was one I wouldn't watch.
GLENN: It was creepy.
It could have been called the Halving.
Or, you know, When Magic Goes Bad. David Copperfield stars in the Halving. Now, I have to cut this woman in half. And he can't put her back. Maybe I don't --
STU: That would be a good plot. That's not what the halving is for Bitcoin though.
GLENN: Yeah.
STU: And you've seen the price go up. There's been various reasons for that over the past year.
The ETFs. Meaning a lot of money is flowing into Bitcoin for the first time, really. That is a big catalyst of it.
The other is the halving, which happens, what? Every four years.
You don't know exactly what will happen. As they get closer and closer, they can specify.
And it will be today, at some point. About ten hours from now.
GLENN: And what does it mean exactly?
STU: Basically, when Bitcoin started. You have to have miners with, who are going to mine the Bitcoin to kind of bring it into availability for everybody.
GLENN: And you knew this would involve minors.
STU: No, it's not like Jeffrey Epstein. Think of a coal miner, except digitally.
GLENN: Different kind of miner. Okay. All right. What are they wearing? Are they wearing pants?
STU: That's not important. That's not important. By the way, Bitcoin miners know they're not wearing pants. They're in their underwear in their mother's basement. At least that's how it started. It was people in their underwear in their mom's basement, basically. And they were mining tons and tons of Bitcoin.
Now, remember, Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million of them. They are sort of -- think of them being mined. They are slowly mined, this time, I think we've mined, 2140. I don't know. It's a long way. But the basic idea with the halving, is every four years the reward for the miners gets cut in half. So the reason that's important, is the supply shrinks.
So maybe, you go back years and years and years. There's tons and tons of Bitcoin going on. Getting mined every single day.
Now, that number gets cut in half.
It was like each block, which is about every ten minutes.
Each one of those, it was six Bitcoin. Were freed into the world.
Like released into the world.
Now it's like three. It shrinks every four years. 1.75. 1.5. Or 1.25. It's not exact numbers.
GLENN: Until it gets to zero and there's no more Bitcoin left.
STU: And that's at 21 million Bitcoin. So you are now at -- I think it's six to three, roughly, in this particular halving. And the other part about the halving that has been important to note, is every time, there has been one, over the next six months, there has been a massive increase in the prophesy Bitcoin. Now, will this happen this time? No one knows. Past performance is not indicative of future results, we all know the disclaimer.
GLENN: We really do know that disclaimer. You may not know that disclaimer, but we do.
STU: Yes. Very true.
GLENN: The views of Stu are not necessarily those of the host.
STU: This is not financial advice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. We don't know. We have also had a very large rise over the past year. So some people theorized, it's already built in.
Right?
This time, the rise we've already had, is basically part of what the halving would bring. However, when you look at the charts over the past three or four or five halvings. We've had massive increases. All those times, where all of a sudden, everyone around you, was talking about Bitcoin. Almost all those periods happened between six months.
Three to nine months after a halving.
GLENN: After. Not before.
STU: Well, you've seen some rises before. Generally, speaking, the real pop has happened after.
GLENN: This has been a real pop. This brought us back to where it was.
STU: There's a reason to believe, there's more here. Again, the last one was in 2020. Do you remember the 2021 phenomenon?
Then you had a drop back down. We are now down back to where we were, 2021.
GLENN: Making a case that somebody should buy, just a fraction of Bitcoin.
STU: Okay.
GLENN: I mean, you know, when it first started, and everybody was on board. Everybody was buying Bitcoin.
Because it was like, I have three Bitcoin. You know.
STU: Yep.
GLENN: And now, most people cannot afford to buy -- no.
STU: Of course not. Let me put it this way.
Right now, you would say, Bitcoin, $60,000. Basically, it's only for a millionaire.
Someone who wants tons of money, who will throw into a Bitcoin.
You might say only millionaires can afford that.
You might say something like that. Think of it this way, there are 24.5 million millionaires just in the United States.
GLENN: 24.5 million millionaires.
STU: Yes. Right. Right now, there will never be enough Bitcoin for every millionaire in the United States to own one. That doesn't include millionaires around the world. There are already too many millionaires for just millionaires to get one of these things.
GLENN: How much of it do you think is lost? Permanently, forever, lost.
STU: Permanently. Like, for example, we know the Satoshi's account. Which, the guy who invented Bitcoin. We don't know who it is. Group of people. Or if he's dead. I think they're dead. That's my opinion. He has an account with 1 million of it, in it, that's never moved.
So we basically know, unless this guy reveals himself somehow in the future. Which is not likely, that a million of them are lost. We also know, early on, people were mining these things and getting thousands and tens of thousands of them. And just losing -- turning their computer off. And not thinking they were worth anything.
The estimates are that probably something like a third of them are lost forever. So instead of 21 million, maybe it's 14 million. Maybe it's 15 million.
Somewhere in that vicinity. Now that they're valuable, people are not losing them, of course. At least as often. It's still happening every day.
People screw it up. They lose it.
They send it to the wrong account. That stuff still happens. But you're probably talking about, let's say 15 million, that actually will exist.
You have 24.5 millionaires in the United States. In the world, you have about 60 million millionaires. So if you split up all the Bitcoin in the world, just among millionaires, they can only get a quarter of one each.
Now, if you can put some in there. The idea that these things will go down in value.
Over the very long-term. To me, is unlikely.
And part of that is, at the beginning of this, nobody knew. Right?
Like when I first invested in Bitcoin. And I don't have a lot of money in Bitcoin. But when I first started in Bitcoin. My thought was, I'm going to throw some money in this, let's see what happens.
I have absolutely no idea.
My thought was, there's a good chance. I said this to you, at the time. There's a good chance it goes to zero. It was a total gamble. I had no idea.
I liked the concept of money that can't be inflated and printed. Right?
I like that concept. That's why I was interested in it.
But, I mean, how many multi-trillion dollar industries can you remember going to zero?
I mean, is there any example of this?
GLENN: White star line. This has I don't think they were worth trillions. Right?
Enron was a big company, right?
Don't remember it being worth trillions. Bitcoin's market cap is over a trillion dollars.
GLENN: No. I can't see it going to zero. Unless all the central banks in the world say, not --
STU: It's so resistant to that right now. Though.
GLENN: I know.
STU: We're seeing countries open up. And start accepting it. You know, the United States of America, has now accepted Bitcoin ETFs. That's a huge embrace of this technology.
And look, I don't know. I can't tell you, it won't go down in the future. I would be surprised if it never goes down below these levels again. It probably will.
So you might buy today. And at some point, be down.
A lot of people bought in 2021. And thought, oh, my gosh, I've lost all my money.
Except, now pretty much every person who has ever bought Bitcoin in its history, if they held on to it, is either about even or up.
GLENN: Everybody. Even the people who bought at the very peak.
STU: Everybody. Yeah, unless you bought like a couple of months ago, when it hit 69-70 for a couple of days. There's a few people.
But generally speaking, almost no one who has ever purchased this and kept it, has lost money.
And that's that's quite a statement. Again, what other investments can you point to, that has that type of record?
There's almost none. So I don't know. You don't know what the future holds, but man, this is a technology that has proved itself incredibly resilient.
GLENN: I get really pissed at you, every time we talk about this. Every time.
STU: You get pissed at me.
Why are you pissed at me?
GLENN: Yes, I do. I blame you for bad decisions. Blame you.
STU: Why?
GLENN: I was with Marc Andreessen.
STU: Yes.
GLENN: It might have even been a fraction of a cent.
STU: It was before -- well before I bought it. That's for sure.
Because I remember the conversation.
GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
And he's going to start some new thing with this new currency.
STU: Yeah. I remember you telling me this, at the time. I fortunately, did not listen.
GLENN: Yeah. Neither did I. Neither did I.
And we could have put hundred dollars in it, at this point.
STU: Oh, my gosh.
$100. Do you know how much that would be worth?
GLENN: It was a fraction of a cent. Wasn't it?
STU: I don't remember if it was that low, but it was really early.
GLENN: It was right as he started the digital wallet.
Coinbase. It was right as he started it.
STU: Gosh. This makes me physically ill.
GLENN: I think he actually told me that before he started it.
Or he may have --
STU: In the middle of making money or whatever.
GLENN: Yeah. He said, do you know anything about Bitcoin. You should invest.
Just take $5,000. And just throw it in this. And I'm like, uh-huh.
And I -- at the time, $5,000 was -- you know.
STU: You would probably be a billionaire.
GLENN: I would be.
STU: I can't imagine how many you would have -- I love this story.
GLENN: Well, look it up. Look it up.
Look up when they opened Coinbase.
And what the price of Bitcoin was. $5,000.
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Ten-second station ID.
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GLENN: So go ahead.
STU: What?
GLENN: Why he didn't you invest in it? You're always -- you're that kind of guy. You know, I just threw some money in it. Why didn't you --
STU: I mean, I think I did. I just didn't do it as early as that.
Again, I wish I had invested more. Then I wouldn't have to be sitting here with you every day. It would be a dream.
GLENN: If I had a time machine, that's the only thing I would change. And for that reason. I would go back in time.
STU: You would make me -- you actually wouldn't mind making me a billionaire, just so I wouldn't have to be here every day?
GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. That's the kind of guy I am.
STU: How about this, I'll it do for 10 mil right now. Get some financing.
So it depends. It's hard to know exactly when you talk to him. The Coinbase started in 2012. Coinbase is a little later, when you're talking a fraction of a cent, so it was about ten bucks in 2020 -- when it actually started selling Bitcoin. When Coinbase began that process, it was about ten bucks.
If you spent $5,000 then, you would have had about 500 Bitcoin, which would be worth $32.5 million. Which would be incredibly nice. However, my remembrance of this story was, it was before -- before that. When it was sort of being dreamt up.
So it could have been.
GLENN: It was one of the first times I've ever heard of Bitcoin. And I think I came back to you. And I said, what is Bitcoin?
And you were like, well, people buy pizzas with it.
STU: This is ridiculous history.
GLENN: That's exactly what he said.
STU: I don't think I knew much of anything. I had heard of it. But I didn't know anything about it at that time -- I definitely was not discouraging you in investing $5,000. That's exactly how you remember it.
GLENN: That's exactly how I remember it, Your Honor.
STU: And one fascinating thing I think that really hasn't fully taken -- taken root yet when it comes to the Bitcoin phenomenon.
GLENN: By the way, hang on just a second. I just have to say something. I said at the time. I said that, on the air too.
STU: Oh, really?
We should go back and find it.
We can probably find it.
GLENN: Marc Andreessen. He's at Bitcoin.
Blah, blah, blah. But Warren Buffett. He says, if you don't understand it, you shouldn't invest in it.
STU: Where did you find that?
GLENN: I wonder if anybody. If anybody did it.
What our earliest time was, when we said. Hey, maybe you should throw some money into it.
I don't know if I will do it. If anybody in the audience. Of course, there was somebody that was in the audience.
They're not now.
STU: Showing, they're billionaires.
GLENN: On a yacht someplace.
STU: I think that's one of the things that's most interesting in a societal sense.
That we had a lot of people. Because the early people into Bitcoin. Not like the people necessarily today.
But the early people into Bitcoin. Were people who generally speaking, were ideologically let's say Libertarian.
Or somewhat close to that.
GLENN: Yes. Correct.
STU: And there are now massive amounts of people, who became insanely wealthy over this process. And continue probably to get even wealthier.
And those people who would have probably been marginalized in society, at some level.
Maybe they would of been successful. But would never have that sort of power.
GLENN: No. They're the losers. Loaners. And creeps.
STU: And we've seen.
I mean, Libertarians, will describe themselves this way.
So we've seen now, that many of these people have made an impact. Right?
We've seen a lot of them. Marc Andreessen. Not necessarily, an ideological Libertarian. A lot of these people have risen.
Two of the richest people in the world. Are the Winklevoss twins. The people who had Facebook stolen from them.
GLENN: I think they're fictional characters.
STU: They may be. They were in a movie once. So I don't know.
GLENN: Sure. Anybody can play them. But I think anybody with Winklevoss as their name. And they're twins. I think it's too magical to be real.
STU: It's hard to believe.
GLENN: It is. It is.
Oh, let's call on the Winklevoss twins.
STU: For everything --
GLENN: Show up. Say their names three times.
Hi, we're here to grant any wish, with our magical Bitcoin.
STU: Right. Consider that they basically had Facebook -- in my opinion, Facebook stolen from them. They wound up getting thrown out.
Got some money for it. Were not insanely wealthy.
Wound up not with one, but two giant revolutions of the world.
They were at the founding of almost -- they invested a fortune in Bitcoin, right after that.
And now were multi-billionaires because of it. It's a weird people that wouldn't have normally been at the top of our society. Are now there. And hopefully, they've kept some of these small government routes, through that process.
And maybe they can Friday the country, in a way --
GLENN: No. No. Because when you get that wealthy. What you do, you know, I can get somebody on the phone.
I can make this happen. I don't want a stop sign here.
And I think we should also kill the poor. I will get both of those done. I will call my council member. And, you know, my master at the WEF.
You know what you know I mean?
You start protecting it, and then that all goes to hell.
STU: Maybe. Who knows?
GLENN: We should do what Star Trek did, and abolish all money. Learn how to live in harmony.
STU: That worked out well for them. They were poor in episode.
What are you talking about?
GLENN: How did they pay for those starships? How ridiculous was that?